Some satellite photos show the new barges clearly
it's only a matter of time, but certainly in the next 3 years
Xi could feasibly get overthrown if the economy continues to suck. It would not surprise me if the successor wants to suck up the US
It is common for dictators to go to war to divert attention away from internal discontent and unite a country
China has a fundamental national myth of a great struggle and victory completed so lets avoid bloodshed and war that caused it. Their story of past trauma causes present stability.
It's this idea of: "we are all in it together let's not rock the boat because last time millions died" that unites their country.
Proxy wars, soft power, buying third world UN votes is more their rule book. That said, threatening war and invasion of Taiwan is also what they have done for decades...
A war against Taiwan would be hugely costly in terms of sanctions. That would hardly unite the country.
Trump is putting the sanctions on anyway
In fact, you can imagine a blockade of Taiwan being introduced to enforce Chinese sanctions that are levied in direct response to American sanctions etc. that could well be the escalation path that china chooses
The problem is that China is very weak right now. If they tank their economy and seize Taiwan… they’ll be much worse off.
The threatened trump tariffs are bad but nearly as bad as what’s being done to Russia For example
Not just dictators..
- [deleted]
The "special" barges could have a commercial use. China has a huge number of mega products and services it is offering to the rest of the developing world, and is useing non traditional engineering to get jobs done quickly and on budget. Railways, mines, solar and wind ,and new ports are, point and click. The idea of China conducting a DDay type attack are preposterous, they will use an overwhelming scale, ultra high tech, remote warfare attack. It will be very, very, quick, and close to bloodless. Drones, missles, precision removal of all ranking officers and comunication hubs, total coms denial, 1.5 million armed combat troops, landing in personal vtol, and water based craft, 20 min latter, the very high likely hood of a surrender and declaration of joyous re-integration of greater China. With, most importantly the anouncement, that it will be business as usual next Tuesday, just the flag, head of government, and certain departments will change. China has a file on everyone in Taiwan, what they do, where they do it, and where there most basic loyaltys lie and they are making it known, that peoples best move, is to ignore the whole thing, as an inevitability, that does not have to effect them at all. Its working.
Huh, I wonder if they’re going to invade Taiwan like they promised to do by 2027. I love how people somehow still think it’s not going to happen.
> invade Taiwan like they promised to do by 2027
When did Beijing say this?
2027 is the date by when Xi wanted the military modernized and ready for an op, 2027-2030 is the optimal time frame for them to try it:
https://media.defense.gov/2023/Apr/24/2003205865/-1/-1/1/07-...
Is there anybody on here with the military chops to tell me why these wouldn't just be sitting ducks? You could bomb them with plains, you could torpedo them with submarines, you could mine the area where they land....
There are countermeasures for all contingencies.
Not necessarily. If a plane has a combat radius of 600 miles and it can't take off from within 1000 miles of the theater, and it can't refuel once in the air, then it's tricky. Maybe the planes have very long range missiles, but those can be electronically jammed, and the targets are moving. The US has both refueling tankers and B2s that have a very long range. But refueling tankers are not stealthy, so China has a chance to take them down, and B2's are extraordinarily expensive.> you could bomb them with planes
Once a submarine launches a torpedo, it ceases to be stealthy. Of course, it can regain its stealth mode if it submerges quickly and leaves the area, but it becomes a game of cat and mouse. It's possible for China to infest the area with lots of unmanned underwater vehicles that could patrol and once an enemy submarine is identify, keep track of it.> you could torpedo them with submarines
There are ways to get rid of the mines. Lots of ways. Plus, if China feigns an invasion and doesn't actually invade, what is Taiwan to do? Leave the mines there? Permanently? That is quite hazardous for the civilian population. If China feigns 4 times and attacks for good the 5th time, will this be a problem?> you could mine the area where they landBottom line: these questions that you are asking and I am answering: there are a few thousand people in China that are asking the same questions and trying to come up with answers, and then some are wargaming the answers and some are trying to come up with answers to the answers to the answers. There are people in the US who do the same. But China's threat to invade Taiwan should not be taken lightly.
They certainly wouldn't be the first waive. China would start with cyber attacks, the destroy communication infrastructure (fiber, satellites), jam communications, fire standoff weapons, then land bombardment, and then this. Roughly in that order if I've watched enough simulations (no military background here btw, just repeating).
> destroy communication infrastructure
Chinese ships are just “testing the waters” this week by cutting the Internet cables near Taiwan.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42615939 "Chinese Vessel Cuts Taiwan Internet Cable in Apparent Sabotage"
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/09/china/undersea-cable-taiwan-i... "A cut undersea internet cable is making Taiwan worried about ‘gray zone’ tactics from Beijing"
I mean they are.
Realistically some will be hit during intial exchanges, current specialized amphib like this vessel mostly used for training and CONEMPs.
PRC will rebuild at leisure once TW is defanged / US removed from equation, last year they built more dry tonnage than entire 5 year US ship building program during WW2. They can crank these out during amphib phase...
By the time these are employed, landing will mostly be largely uncontested. TBH by the time these are employed TW will have no energy, no calories, no running water, no sewage etc... they'll probably be looking forward to logistics barges to bring in supplies.
Slight tangent: thoughts on the J-36 in a hypothetical Taiwan scenario?
1IC, Guam, Alaska maybe Darwin and Diego Garcia standoff strikes. Or enabler strikes (tankers/awacs/replenishment etc). Also perhaps even east Europe (baltics, east germany, scanadinavian peninsula).
IMO very not... polite to talk about - MENA strikes.
Downstream of Malacca / energy blockade is US financial pressure to MENA energy exporters to simply not export to PRC... obviating need for physical blockade, of course all sorts of potential transhipping sheninagans to circumvent.
PRC IRBM+s can already hit MENA energy facilities, J36 range = hitting US MENA military basing, at greater scale. Basically sharper sword of damacles on MENA (and NATO whose dependant on MENA energy) on hedging/cooperating with US security interests in TW scenario. Due to PRC geographic location (5000km = 3000km j36 + 2000km+ standoff), J36 is functionally light strategic bomber that can be based in mainland to hit INDOPACOM, CENTCOM, EUROCOM without need for forward basing logistics. If J36 has supercruise, it can hit those areas with standoff munitions within probably 5 hours (vs B2/B21 missions are like 50+ hours from CONUS so there's geographic multiplier affect per J36 frame). Fleet of J36s creates 5000km bubble of high tempo deterence. Then consider procurement rate differences (100 B21s by 2040s vs how many J36s can be build), and then potential PLA engine / missile upgrading (i.e. extend range by 1000km UK enters picture), or tanking over RU and suddently CONUS north west CONUS / Alberta oil infra is in range.
Because China is a nuclear power. Nuclear powers get to do what they want, as per the precedent set by the US.
> Nuclear powers get to do what they want, as per the precedent set by the US
It's a Cold War precedent. (Since the Cold War, one underlined by America, Russia and China.) America had a global nuclear monopoly for years and didn't exploit it.
If you say why not tomorrow, I say why not today? If you say today at 5 o’clock, I say why not one o’clock?
In other news, US is building a fleet of barges suitable for Greenland landings.
> In other news, US is building a fleet of barges suitable for Greenland landings.
Do you actually believe that the US is currently building a "fleet of barges suitable for Greenland landings"? For real?
It's obviously a joke, which is usually lost on HN.
yeah no. you don't get to gaslight us this way.
Imperialism is OK when we do it.
Log off your government funded technology to socially reach out with “democracy and rationality”.
Not sure where the tech crowd gets off being offended when the backbone of their lives is an info network used to manipulate sentiment that props up their jobs.
“When a person paycheck depends on their not understanding…” and all that
Trump needs to address this. CCP is getting antsy.
"What's in it for me?".
"Ok China, Taiwan offered me X, Y, Z. What've you got?"
> "What's in it for me?".
TSMC
Already got one at home.