Official numbers say the U.S. isn’t in recession—does real life feel different?
America is in a 4 income economy - the number of typical incomes needed to reliably meet basic bills (rent,transpo,food,utils) in most markets.
I've lived thru 8 recessions, none had achieved this level of difficulty. None had so completely barred new entrants to society.
I’m really curious about the 08 recession. I definitely remember some of the fallout, but I was young and insulated from much of what it meant. My parents were also lucky enough to be employed with a mortgage.
The one thing killing me in the economy is housing. Rent is up like crazy, but even more so rental criteria is ridiculous and competition is insane.
And this is in a dilapidated rust belt city with maybe one industry propping up the entire economy. It’s a bit cheaper than when I was in Florida a few years back, but not by a ton.
If I could figure out housing, all other problems would solve themselves, but it’s the one problem I can’t solve. My credit score took a battering during a long period of unemployment, and now I’m about as much of a pariah as a three time felon with two evictions, and I don’t even have an eviction.
But how was in after the 2008 crisis. How hard was it to find rent them. If you had a job, and income were the rents still ridiculous? Or was it easy enough to find a place if you had money?
> Rent is up like crazy, but even more so rental criteria is ridiculous and competition is insane.
Yes. People with solid jobs and money in the bank - people who've lived responsibly by saving before buying, almost no one will rent to them because of a zero credit score.
And we know a bit about competition too. We got our current rental in 2021. It was a FB ad, with a crayon drawing of the layout. It was up for less than 2hrs and had 50 applicants. We got it by offering 6 mos in advance + heavy security deposit.
Most people now forget that 50+ years ago, the husband was the sole bread winner, kept his job for most of his life, and could afford the house, car, 4 children and a few pets.
I read somewhere that when women started working in the war efforts, businesses took advantage and skewed home prices and whatnot to make it so women had no choice but to continue working. This worked out well, because women wanted to work and have similar social treatment as men.
The issue then is that things kept skewing to the point where today a childless couple with high paying jobs can barely afford a vehicle and tiny apartment.
This may or may not be accurate. But it is an interesting opinion that I've heard a number of times over the years.
“ the husband was the sole bread winner, kept his job for most of his life, and could afford the house, car, 4 children and a few pets.”
We don’t _forget_ this. We refute it. It’s not true. It’s a dream that real estate developers _sold_ that wasn’t real.
In 1975 the women’s labor participation rate stood right around 50% its around 55% now [0].
In 1975 the US home ownership rate was 65%, its 65% now [1].
There were more families with no cars in the 70s than now. 1 and 2 car families were about the same rate (with more 2 car families now) but the big difference is how many more families have more than 2 cars now than then [2].
More stats for you: - food as a percentage of family budget is lower now than then (and the only reason its close is that we eat out way more now)[3] - houses are bigger now than then[4] - data on employee tenure doesn’t go back that far, but the data we do have to the 80s shows employee tenure hasn’t changed [5]
There are lots of interesting economic challenges now, but _generally_ more people now are living better lives than then past economically. Anyone that sells you some story about some glorious past is lying to you for some reason.
Home ownership rates are always the tell. The US had very stable home ownership rates in the 45% range until the New Deal efforts that started subsidizing like crazy home ownership. They rose in the post war era until about 1960 when they reached the mid 60s. They have fluctuated in a tight curve in that band since then. The home ownership rate is tightly correlated to mortgage rates, not generational values, and spikes in 2005 (right before the bubble burst) not in the dim past [6].
[0] https://blog.dol.gov/2023/03/15/working-women-data-from-the-... [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N [2] https://www.bts.gov/archive/publications/passenger_travel_20... [3] https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/ag-and-food-statistic... [4] https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/programs-surveys/a... [5] https://www.ebri.org/content/trends-in-employee-tenure-1983-... [6] https://www.jchs.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/research/fi...
You mean the average number of full time jobs a single person needs to do to survive? or a couple? or a couple with kids?
Four incomes is the number of full-time jobs paying typical (most obtainable) wages. Presumably that would be 4 people.
In my market: In mid 1990s one person could afford basic bills on typical, full-time wages. By 2007 living costs had doubled, most due to housing increases. For the next 12 years, wages and living costs mostly kept parity until 2020.
During 2020, basic bills (mostly housing) rose and a typical wage-earning home required ~3 incomes as rents shot up. By late 2021 we were firmly at 4 incomes while everything shot up, especially housing and insurances.
In your estimation what was the peak for ease of new entrance to society?
Was 1968 awesome for everybody?
Peak purchasing power of the minimum wage, per the question about entrance to society. To my knowledge, there is no period where America was “awesome for everybody”, as there is always a material cohort or cohorts America subjugates, exploits, or marginalizes for nation state economic success.
I never asked about peak purchasing power of the minimum wage. Not sure why you brought that up tbh.
“peak for ease of new entrance to society?” was the question you asked. Maximum earning power for anyone (minimum wage) was the answer. The lower your purchasing power, or access to purchasing power, the less ease for entrance to society, economically speaking. This coincides with the tail end of America’s post WW2 economic boom.
> Maximum earning power for anyone (minimum wage) was the answer.
I think you meant to say “my answer” not “the answer.”
1968 was most awesome for white males.
My mom managed to keep the family afloat on one income but she was working a higher-income job (w/ wages somewhat lower than the men below her). Winters could be tougher; we ate what we grew during the summer and didn't always have money for furnace fuel.
Not sure about the US, but IT industry in Canada definitely is in a recession. When good graduates from Waterloo CS cannot find an entry level job, you know something is wrong.
If you are talking about as defined by NBER there is no “official numbers”. Recession by that definition is a) not a fixed set of numbers, the board determines it each time based on lots of different things and they aren’t necessarily the same metrics every time and b) explicitly a backwards looking descriptive designation. Most of the time you will be _through_ a recession before it’s declared.
They’re running out of cards to stack up in the form of a house
> GoFundMe CEO says the economy is so bad that more of his customers are crowdfunding just to pay for their groceries
October 13th, 2025
https://fortune.com/2025/10/13/gofundme-ceo-economy-inflatio...